morning thoughts..
The markets continued to remain and behave in exactly the same pattern we have mentioned.
Now we move into an highly oversold zones of 60 DEMA , also we head for an important session as we look forward to the monetary policy.
Technically the markets doesn’t exhibits much strength but a reaction from the oversold zones cannot be ruled out and some optimism ahead of the monetary policy can take the nifty to higher levels.
We have been saying continuously that the strategy remains to buy on dips and exit at higher levels , shorting at lower and oversold zones can be hazardous.
The Rbi has intervened by open fresh positions in forex markets which have arrested the fall in rupee which will have its effect on commodity markets and bullions , gold , silver , energy , natural gas , crude ,copper ,can tend to move lower , we have said in our earlier post also about the weakness in base metals and commodities and all of them have tend lower.
Now all of them are slowly moving into oversold zones and can see a bounce from lower levels.
Coming to equity markets Technically, we need to watch out for the supply zone between 4760 and 4784. Once this range is crossed, the index might well attempt to clear the major supply zone between 4824 and 4853.
On the downside, now the major support zone below the 4700-mark for the Nifty would be between 4675 and 4625. This is the last and final support range before the 4500-levels. Any serious breakdown below this range would push the Nifty down below even the 4500-mark soon enough.
Yesterday, the most actively traded security in the F&O space had been the 4700-put and the 4800-call options. While the volume of contracts traded for these two options catapulted them to top two traded securities position, they saw large reduction in open interest (OI). The OI fall in the call option had been 646400 units and the same for the put 400050 units. It shows that traders are not willing to commit before the central bank makes its stance on the monetary policy public. The IVs for put options continue to be higher than the call options indicating at least a marginal tilt towards the downswing probabilities.
The supports for the nifty is at 4725 levels and resistance at 4890 levels.
The supports for the sensex is at 15800 levels and resistance at 16250 levels.
Stocks to watch
Brfl , titan inds , icici bank looks good on the long side
Yesterday’s Calls sent via sms and messenger
Nifty 4800 ce – buy at cmp 69 sl 58 targets 98 , went 94.50
Nifty – buy at cmp 4722 sl 4698 targets 4780 , went 4774
Petronet Lng – buy at cmp 158.50 sl 157 targets 162 ,went 161.80
Idfc – buy at cmp 103.50 sl 102 targets 107 , went 107.40
Niit Tech – buy at cmp 183.50 sl 181 targets 188 , went 187.80
Idfc 100 ca – booked profits at 9 , long from 5.75
Stbt Mcloed Russel – booked profits at 190 , short from 202
Btst Idfc – booked profits at 107 , long from 103
Gold Mcx – sell at cmp 27928 sl 28000 targets 27750 – booked profits at 27766
Silver Mcx – sell at cmp 53820 sl 53950 targets 53400 – booked profits at 53585
Natural gas – sell at cmp 172 sl 173.50 targets 168 – booked profits at 170.20
Crude Mcx – buy at cmp 5183 sl 5168 targets 5225 – hit sl
Copper Mcx – sell at cmp 397.20 sl 399 targets 390 – booked profits at 392
