morning thoughts..

The markets continued its uptrend and achieved our targets of 5050 on the nifty front , where we have continuously been advising to buy on dips.
Technically there is no weakness in the system and the uptrend is likely to continue with good movements in individual stocks and sectors.
The volatility indicator—the NSE India VIX—has shaved off 100 basis points in the last session to close at 21.68 indicating that we are getting very close to an overbought situation. The Nifty PCR staying above 1.50 also points to a similar situation.So mild reaction and profit booking at higher levels of 5075 – 5100 is not ruled out.
However any dip or panic will provide yet another opportunity to create longs.
As such, the index is likely to face stiff resistance between 5042 and 5080 range, this would be a real tough hurdle that may not be crossed without some consolidation beneath the zone. That consolidation would imply absorption of supplies below this crucial supply zone so that bulls would not face much trouble in absorbing fresh supplies within the zone else it would become top-heavy for the current uptrend that would suffer a fall on its own weight by simply finding lack of adequate buying capacity at higher levels.
If Nifty crosses the above major supply zone between 5042 and 5080 then the next and final resistance zone would between the two 200-day moving averages—simple and exponential—they are now located at 5224 and 5131 respectively. We would do well to remember that the October swing of the Nifty was terminated at 5399.70 when the 200-day simple moving average was at 5409. Thus, any bull phase or a new bull market—in whatever manner you would like to refer to it—would be confirmed only when the 200-day simple moving average is decisively crossed—as of now, the level is at 5224.
On the commodity front we have been advising buying base metals and bullions from past few days and we continued our bearish stance on energy , all the base metals lead , copper , nickel , bullions , gold, silver have seen a good rally in past few sessions , whereas energy – natural gas , crude and mentha oil has witnessed a sharp correction in past few sessions.
Coming to equity markets the last intermediate upswing between 4728 and 5399 lasted for 24 calendar days in October 2011, this time we have already seen the upswing being 30- calendar-day-old and still going strong. From a swing studies point of view in term of time elapsed this is the largest swing amongst the last three intermediate upswings. The late-June-early-July one had duration of just 18 days.
Thus, we clearly see that the upswings are progressively larger in term of time indicating a probable change in the longer term trend could be in the offing. However, once we get an upswing that is larger than at least the June-July swing of 544 points in terms of price amplitude meaning this uptrend takes the Nifty beyond 5075-mark, we would be more certain that the probability of a bull market or a bull phase coming back would be much greater.
The supports for the nifty is at 4975 levels and resistance at 5100 levels.
The support for the sensex is at 16300 levels and resistance at 16900 levels.


Stocks to watch

Financial and banking sector looks good
Icici bank , dena bank , federal bank , bank of India , dhanlaxmi bank looks good

We have already advised to buy icici bank , dlf , idfc , icici 800 ca , nifty 5000 ce , dlf 200 ca on yahoo messenger and facebook as a free gesture

www.astroeyes.co.cc


Yesterday’s calls sent via sms and messenger

Pfc – buy at cmp 158 sl 156.50 targets 163 , went 161.60

Hoec – buy at cmp 111 sl 109 targets 117 , went 116.20

Lic – buy at cmp 247 sl 245 targets 252 , hit sl

Icici Bank 800 ca – buy at cmp 11.70 sl 8 targets 25 – holding

Nifty 5000 ce – buy at cmp 51 sl 45 targets 75 – holding

Bank Nifty – buy at cmp 9190 sl 9100 targets 9450 – holding

Nifty – buy at cmp 5005 sl 4985 targets 5065 – holding

Operator Icici bank – buy at cmp 785 sl 765 targets 830 – holding

Fii Federal Bank – buy at cmp 359 sl 353 targets 380 – holding

Jackpot Dhanlaxmi Bank – buy at cmp 53 sl 51 targets 60 – holding

Btst Ibrealest – buy at cmp 59 sl 57.50 targets 64 – holding

Stbt Mahindra and Mahindra – sell at cmp 680 sl 685 targets 665 – holding

Copper Mcx – buy at cmp 423 sl 421.50 targets 427 – booked profits at 426

Silver Mcx – buy at cmp 53532 sl 53250 targets 53850 – booked profits at 53800

Gold Mcx – buy at cmp 27498 sl 27370 targets 27750 – booked profits at 27660

Crude Mcx – buy at cmp 5095 sl 5086 targets 5130 – booked profits at 5121