Monday, May 12, 2014

morning thoughts...

Hope all saw the magic of our preintimated mega transit , this is what astrology can do in advance.
Technically the markets still looks up with seledted stocks
Last week the BSE sensex gained 590 points, to end the week at 22,994, and the NSE-Nifty added 164 to close at 6,853. What is interesting is that these gains were made entirely, and then some, on Friday, the final day of the week, which saw the sensex rising 650 points and the Nifty adding 198. What made the market rally so strongly on Friday? Probably it was the sight of TV images showing a strong turnout when Narendra Modi's motorcade passed through Varanasi, which investors anticipate will result in the electorate giving a majority, or near majority, to the NDA. Exit poll results will be declared on Monday evening, and if these also confirm the TV image conclusions, it could lead to a further spurt. Results will be out on May 16. 
True, there will be a feel good factor if the electorate throws up a mandate that does not require a coalition of the unwilling. This could cause a mood swing in the positive direction. However, it is also true that the next Government will have huge problems that need to be addressed, and these can only be tackled firmly if they do not require the support of fickle coalition partners in so doing. 

One of these problems is the effect of El Nino, with the Australian Met Department issuing a warning to Indiawould be the most intense ever. This is important because agriculture provides some 14% of national income and supports half of India's population. If it does not grow at an anticipated 3% rate, that knocks of 0.42% off GDP growth figures. 
Astrologically During the week, Moon will be transiting in Virgo, Libra & Scorpio. Sun & Ketu   in Aries. Mercury in Taurus. Mars in Virgo.  Venus in Pisces. Lord Saturn & Rahu in Libra.  Jupiter in Gemini,   Pluto in Sagittarius. Neptune in Aquarius & Uranus in Pisces. Sun will shift to Taurus on 15th May 2014.
The other major challenge is the omnipotent fiscal deficit. The UPA Government has piled up a lot of unpaid bills on various subsidies, and has transferred a part of the burden of welfare schemes to State Governments. There is little, if any, left for productive investment in physical or in social infrastructure. If, for example, the economy is to grow at above 6%, banks will need to lend more. The public sector banks do not have the capital to grow their books enough to sustain this GDP growth. The Government does not have the funds to provide that capital, estimated at around Rs 4 lac crores. 
The performance of public sector banks (PSBs) is adversely affected by the instructions given (on telephone) to their Chairmen by the owners, the Government of India, to lend to crony capitalists. This directed lending inevitably results in non performing assets. As per 
AIBEA (All India Bank Employees Association) the non performing loans for 406 borrowers was a whopping Rs 70,300 crores. These are up 5 times in 5 years! Further, a whopping Rs 2.04 lac crores has been written off by banks as bad loans! To put it in perspective, this is half the amount the Government needs now to re capitalise banks! 

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