Monday, August 25, 2014

morning thoughts...

The markets continued its journey upwards and is likely to move up in the coming session too.
Technically the trend is still up , however we may witness only few stocks moving up along with the index.
Almost 2 years have passed since the coal scam unearthed and blackened the face of many big wigs - including high ranking corporates, politicians and bureaucrats. Since then, a lot has happened in the Indian economy. A new Government with a clear majority has taken charge, economic and market sentiments have improved and new scams have surfaced. And concerns like corruption and crony capitalism have given way to optimism. 
However, every now and then, few skeletons from the past keep tumbling out, waking us up to the dangers that are still lurking around. Take the recent event in which once prestigious but now a suspect Aditya Birla Group has been slapped with a penalty of Rs 1.5 bn. More than the amount, it is the context that is worrying. 
The story goes back to October 2013 when an FIR was lodged against Hindalco Group by CBI over an alleged illegal allotment of a mine in Odisha. The allegation also incriminated the former coal secretary PC Parakh for misusing official position and for unduly favouring Hindalco in the matter. 
As reported in article in The Economic Times, this was closely followed by tax department raiding the group's offices, apparently being tipped off by CBI itself. The effort was not in vain as a sum of Rs 25 crore was found at the corporate office of the Aditya Birla Group in New Delhi. The group itself was as clueless about it as anyone else. A claim by the senior executive that it was his money did not convince the authorities. Almost 10 months have passed since then. And outcome - a penalty worth Rs 1.5 bn, six times the original sum that takes care of tax and interest component! Quite well deserved, some may believe. Or is it a much sought and easy exit for the group and others involved? 
The key questions on the matter still remain unanswered. Who did this cash belong to? And what purpose was this huge amount serving, lying thus in the Corporate office. The penalty comes along with the reports that CBI is closing the coal block allocation case against Mr. K.M Birla. And no one is talking about the diary that was recovered in such raids that maintained record of payments made to politicians, undisclosed to the tax authorities, the dates of which coincided either with the Lok Sabha or some state assembly elections. In short, there are too many loose ends that need to be disentangled. And once answers are sought in earnest, we will not be surprised if Rs 1.5 bn penalty seems paltry. 
The decision to file a closure report in the Hindalco case in the coal allocation scam offers an easy escape, not a meaningful closure, and brings us back to square one. While it is good that the scams are being brought to public notice, the system is failing to get to the bottom of such cases. In turn failing to ensure justice and assurance that such instances do not occur in future. Instead, the attention span of common man is getting shorter for such events, thanks to the frequency which they keep appearing. Meanwhile the crony capitalism continues to thrive. And public resources keep getting transferred into private hands. This makes us wonder if better days are really ahead for us! 

Coming to the commodity markets bullions , base metals and energy are likely to trade positive in the coming sessions.

Monday wealth creators

Buy gold , silver , copper , crude , natural gas
Fii and Jackpot Buy Shasun chemicals , kalyani investements , sell tata steel , hindalco
Fo and cash Buy pnb , rallis india , sparc , cesc , indusind bank
Buy nifty and bank nifty
Buy bhel 230 ca , hcl tech 1600 ca
Double bumper buy hindalco 160 pa , tata steel 520 pa