Tuesday, February 3, 2015

morning thoughts...

The markets swinged like a pendulum in the last session giving oppurtunity to both long and short traders and also would have hit stoplosses of many for the increased volatility.
Technically the markets looks volatile and positive in the coming sessions.
However, well the fact that the growth in earnings of Indian companies is certainly not keeping up with the rise in valuations has been well underlined.To add to that the intensity with which central banks in Europe, Japan and China are printing money is destined to keep cheap money flowing in. Therefore investors have some tough choices to make. On one hand they will have the lure of investing in companies that are certain to create wealth over the long term. On the other they need to stick to investing discipline and not buy the wrong stocks at frothy valuations. 
Now, when everything in the stock markets seems too good to be true, it probably is! And here we cannot help but draw your attention to stocks from the financial sector. Mind you this is the third time we are highlighting the risks building up in valuations of financial sector stocks. In the last 30 days alone, we have highlighted how joining the revelers, bullish on banking and financial stocks can be fraught with risks! Also the fact that stocks from the financial sector are shouldering nearly a third of the Sensex market capitalization. The last time the sector had witnessed a similar kind of index weightage was back in early 2008. During the market crash that followed, the weightage had dropped down to below 20%. The reason we are pointing out these facts to you again and again is because we do not want you to get carried away with the stories of financial sector dominance in India's growth. 

Coming to the commodity markets bullions , base metals and energy looks volatile with a buy on dips strategy.

Yesterday's calls sent

Crude Mcx - buy at cmp 2950 sl 2930 targets 3035 - booked at 3030
Nifty - buy at cmp 8837 sl 8815 targets 8890 - holding
Axis bank 600 ca - buy at cmp 23 sl 20 targets 35 - booked at 33.70
Jackpot Videocon inds - buy at cmp 155 sl 151.50 targets 178 - holding
Btst cairn - buy at cmp 237 sl 235 targets 245 - holding
Double bumper Hexaware 230 ca - booked at 14 - long from 6.75
Btst Sparc - booked profits at 348 - long from 330
Jackpot Ranbaxy - booked profits at 728 - long from 700