morning thoughts...
The markets remained rangebound with a positive bias , the same trend is likely to continue in the coming session
Since over a year, crude oil prices have been on a downward spiral. Weakening global economic prospects coupled with a slowing Chinese economy have been the key reasons for this decline. While the ongoing global economic turmoil has rocked the economic prospects of several export-oriented emerging economies, India has been tagged as an unusual bright spot. Low crude prices are a big boon for India given its heavy dependence on crude imports. And though Indian exports have been hit, the economy is primarily a consumption-driven domestic market with the largest youth population in the world.
But have low crude oil prices really been a boon for India?. Apparently, the benefits so far appear modest. And based on historical data analysis, India's economic growth tends to be higher when oil prices are higher.
Does this mean that lower crude prices will result in lower Indian GDP growth? We don't think so. As you may have noticed, lower commodity prices have brought inflation lower, a challenge that was wrecking India's growth prospects. This, in turn, prompted the central bank to lower interest rates, often a precursor to economic revival. In our view, the impact on economic growth may not be immediate since we have serious supply side constraints as well as high level of bad loans in the banking sector. We continue to maintain our view that low crude oil prices will be a big boost for the Indian economy. But the effects may take time to materialize.
Tuesday wealth gains
Buy nifty and bank nifty
Buy mphasis bfl , sbi , idfc
Buy hexaware 260 ca , icici 290 ca
Sell gold , buy silver , copper
Buy axis bank 500 ca , indusind bank
The markets remained rangebound with a positive bias , the same trend is likely to continue in the coming session
Since over a year, crude oil prices have been on a downward spiral. Weakening global economic prospects coupled with a slowing Chinese economy have been the key reasons for this decline. While the ongoing global economic turmoil has rocked the economic prospects of several export-oriented emerging economies, India has been tagged as an unusual bright spot. Low crude prices are a big boon for India given its heavy dependence on crude imports. And though Indian exports have been hit, the economy is primarily a consumption-driven domestic market with the largest youth population in the world.
But have low crude oil prices really been a boon for India?. Apparently, the benefits so far appear modest. And based on historical data analysis, India's economic growth tends to be higher when oil prices are higher.
Does this mean that lower crude prices will result in lower Indian GDP growth? We don't think so. As you may have noticed, lower commodity prices have brought inflation lower, a challenge that was wrecking India's growth prospects. This, in turn, prompted the central bank to lower interest rates, often a precursor to economic revival. In our view, the impact on economic growth may not be immediate since we have serious supply side constraints as well as high level of bad loans in the banking sector. We continue to maintain our view that low crude oil prices will be a big boost for the Indian economy. But the effects may take time to materialize.
Tuesday wealth gains
Buy nifty and bank nifty
Buy mphasis bfl , sbi , idfc
Buy hexaware 260 ca , icici 290 ca
Sell gold , buy silver , copper
Buy axis bank 500 ca , indusind bank
