Friday, September 29, 2017

morning thoughts...

The September series now comes to an end with reversing the trend of last 10 years of positive returns and it was well informed in advance via many posts about the pcr , mcv , ocr of sep moving to 39 against 35 of previous which is unusual and clear indication of sharp fall and deception, well the markets behaved exactly and from the very next day saw the much anticipated and steep fall of 4-5% the difference of pcr mcv ocr 39-35.
Technically now we move into a new series with 3 different scenarios , long built up , long unwinding , short built up with a fall in rollovers and rise in vix index
The dollar index has cooled a bit and the markets now stands at cushion levels and supports and an intermediate bounce to 9900 is not ruled out with more strength in bank nifty , however it will have to sustain above 9900 and 9931 for more rally ahead which is also a resistance levels for the markets , bank nifty requires sustained trading above 24333 for 30-45 mins to maintain strength .
Now the trend and trades on index will be of two types , short trend position and trend reversal pivot trade based on swing trades for medium term
Immediate short term , we have witnessed from past few days a sell on rise and every upside has been sold off , this strategy may not work in next few sessions and markets may swing wildly.
For short term day trading the range remains narrow and requires pivotal moment for shorts and longs with crucial supports and resistances mentioned.
For positional swing trading the larger picture and move is on frame and intact.
The volatility and swing has provided ample opportunity for investors and traders and being with good quality stocks is always rewarding , requires patience and perseverance.
The social media or news donot categorise or presents the exact picture as always and changes direction every one hour, for eg 1 week before L&t was as a buy at 1250 for targets 1400 and 1500 since it has crossed and broken 2 years multiple highs and resistances (as per news) , now at 1150 its not a buy and story has reversed citing 900 odd levels ( as per news) , same with all stocks , so its really funny how the view changes in 1-2 days with exactly opposite targets, so one must stay away from news channels and media as they are in dark , naturally thier views will again reverse as soon as they see green and uptick.
For investors a correction and dip is always an opportunity for long term , for positional and swing traders trend is important along with stoplosses as volatility remains high
We would continue with our strategy in nifty and bank nifty and would accumulate options , call and put as per opportunity with swing trades in futures.
Coming to commodity markets , the range bound and subdued trades continues and will be viable to buy base metals , energy and bullions on dips