Thursday, July 5, 2018

morning thoughts...

July series has followed the pattern of june but has not remained in a tight range channel and is giving vibrant moves for short term and day traders
On the derivatives segment 10800,10900 has witnessed good call writing with some unwinding at 11000 on nifty front whereas 10600 and 10700 sees the maximum put writing with additional oi which suggests that traders are looking at 10700 as immediate support and below that 10600 is the cushion levels and above 10800-850-10900 is the resistance levels for the markets.
So it can be assumed for now that the markets will follow a range move in a channel with the levels mentioned
Coming to the bank nifty which has given a minor breakout last day above 26200 also faces same channel and resistance at 26600-700 whereas supports are seen at 26050 and would meet supply on the higher side
We are pertaining that volatility will be very high so one needs to follow the levels closely
The rangebound channel move is yet again decaying the premium for both call option and put option in nifty and bank nifty and its advisable to not trade in the same without proper guidance
Now if we look into the broader market apart from index then we will witness a complete opposite picture , most of the stocks are declining and making new 52 week lows with intermediate bounces in between which yet again faces selling pressure on the higher side
So one need to be very cautious in taking trades if they do by seeing and comparing index as both are following disproportionate route
Now if we analyse the macd data then we may see that the nifty is above the 9 , 12 and 20 dema and may form a bullish crossover if maintains above it , but its to be noticed that the candle formation has been small so one need not hurry and reach that conclusion 
The bank nifty however is not above it required macd and the rsi is also on lower zone , showing that its managed by 1-2 stocks and the broader inclusion of banks are weak 
We have now clearly interpreted the daily and weekly chart patterns of both nifty and bank nifty
We now move into the weekly expiry of bank nifty and there would be volatile moves in the day
Stock specific and sectoral rotation and moves will continue , auto , pharma and steel are looking strong for small longs whereas pressure is seen in individual nbfcs, housing finance , fmgc
Coming to the commodity markets the main focus remains on crude and it still looks strong with a buy on dips, bullions and base metals are a range bound space

Amidst the range bound channel move, we have managed to create both shorts and longs in index and hitting a jackpot in srt fin option and a sl in yes bank