morning thoughts...
We were talking about a probable reaction at higher levels., we have witnessed the same in past session
Now we would analyse the probability of the index and markets in next or coming session on technical basis
Technically the markets remained and opened at tuesdays high and closed at the same levels without gaining any points which yet again reflects the hesitation of nifty to move higher and increases our conviction for a dip in coming session after an initial rise for test of probable 11100-200 on nifty and 27200-300 on bank nifty
Now we have to carefully analyse and present all data and activities so as the picture is clear for traders
1. The nifty index yet again made a higher low for straight 9th day which is in favour of bulls
2. The nifty index closed at previous days low without any further move with a rectangular candle on daily charts with lower shadow which is in favour of bears
3. Nifty index 10900 strike rate witnesses maximum call writers of 3.65 lac shares which is again a line of caution , which indicates that many people and traders view those levels to be breached and become a resistance in coming days favourite bears
4. Nifty index at money 10950 adds 16000 shares and 11000 adds 50000 shares in oi for call writers which again shows the level as stiff resistance
5. Decrease of put writers and unwinding options upto 10400 levels favouring bulls
6. Slight dip in rsi , macd and a bend in bollinger band of index which was following a upcurve in past few sessions where we indicated that a bullish crossover is likely last week and nifty saw a straight rally from 10557 to 10950 and bank nifty from 26080 to 26900
We have analysed all the possibilities based on technical parameters as per index charts and options chain , derivatives data
We would now analyse the markets based on astrological configuration
In past 3 days and last week , we have mentioned about a strong astrological change taking place on tuesday tuesday and Wednesday which will in high effect till 18th july - untill which high sharp moves will be witnessed with global surprises and incidents , so get ready for elastic and sharp moves
The major planet Jupiter changes position on 12 july and there is a eclipse situation in coming sessions with 12-18 july as very crucial so we may witness sharp fall if a certain condition in index is fulfilled after our initial targets of 11100 and 27200
The change also brings a lots of surprises for eg , sudden dip in crude , strengthening of rupee etc
So what could be the strategy for traders..
Well in the coming session if the markets manages to trade above 10950 on nifty front with yet again higher lows then expect more rise to 11100 and if it breaches 10890 on curves lower on bollinger band than see a deep correction
Broader markets have not participated in the upmove and the index has always been managed by few large caps and the moment the market breadth slips below 10% expect the large caps to dip which will hurt index, it stands at 12% now
We have already mentioned the global concerns of rising crude , weaker rupee, trade war , korean crisis etc
Now in the coming session we face the following important events
1. iip industrial data
2. cpi inflation data
3. weekly bank nifty expiry
4. jupiter changes
5. eclipse situation
6. crucial week untill 18 july
7. trade war sanctions and chinese retaliations
8. unrealistic and pathless targets and expectations by multiple analysts on various channels , media, social media who only looks at a number of index
So now this above factors will manage the markets in the coming session
We would now place some psychological analysis of traders and investors
1. when markets falls , one believes that it will become zero and when it rises they believe that it will reach sky the next day as golden days have arrived , this is fear and greed which over comes them and they lose thier calmness and position to markets volatility
2. non acceptance - a long trader thinks what he buys must not come down and a short traders cannot accept its position going up, they disrespect stoplosses and remain hopeful untill they lose everything
3. average - the most common trait for losses is averaging , when a trade goes wrong, traders make the worst mistake of averaging by going against the trend
4 . leverage - going beyond ones capacity is always harmful
5. expectations and flexibility - expecting only profits and exact targets usually gets punished , so one needs to be very flexible and not stubborn
6. disrespect - usually traders treat markets as a daily casino and without saying wants to take everything possible
So we are heading for exciting sessions and days ahead for equities
Commodity markets remains weak and we have already informed last week that base metals remains a sell on rise , with bullions and energy a buy on dips
We remain short on same stocks mentioned yesterday
Tata steel , hindalco , vedanta , hind zinc , jsw steel , icici bank ,upl
We hold put options of tata steel 560 pa , jindal steel 210 pa , jsw steel 300 pa , vedanta 210 pa , icici 260 pa , upl 600 pa
We have already taken positions in nifty and bank nifty as per our strategy mentioned
Options jackpot and super duper options
We were talking about a probable reaction at higher levels., we have witnessed the same in past session
Now we would analyse the probability of the index and markets in next or coming session on technical basis
Technically the markets remained and opened at tuesdays high and closed at the same levels without gaining any points which yet again reflects the hesitation of nifty to move higher and increases our conviction for a dip in coming session after an initial rise for test of probable 11100-200 on nifty and 27200-300 on bank nifty
Now we have to carefully analyse and present all data and activities so as the picture is clear for traders
1. The nifty index yet again made a higher low for straight 9th day which is in favour of bulls
2. The nifty index closed at previous days low without any further move with a rectangular candle on daily charts with lower shadow which is in favour of bears
3. Nifty index 10900 strike rate witnesses maximum call writers of 3.65 lac shares which is again a line of caution , which indicates that many people and traders view those levels to be breached and become a resistance in coming days favourite bears
4. Nifty index at money 10950 adds 16000 shares and 11000 adds 50000 shares in oi for call writers which again shows the level as stiff resistance
5. Decrease of put writers and unwinding options upto 10400 levels favouring bulls
6. Slight dip in rsi , macd and a bend in bollinger band of index which was following a upcurve in past few sessions where we indicated that a bullish crossover is likely last week and nifty saw a straight rally from 10557 to 10950 and bank nifty from 26080 to 26900
We have analysed all the possibilities based on technical parameters as per index charts and options chain , derivatives data
We would now analyse the markets based on astrological configuration
In past 3 days and last week , we have mentioned about a strong astrological change taking place on tuesday tuesday and Wednesday which will in high effect till 18th july - untill which high sharp moves will be witnessed with global surprises and incidents , so get ready for elastic and sharp moves
The major planet Jupiter changes position on 12 july and there is a eclipse situation in coming sessions with 12-18 july as very crucial so we may witness sharp fall if a certain condition in index is fulfilled after our initial targets of 11100 and 27200
The change also brings a lots of surprises for eg , sudden dip in crude , strengthening of rupee etc
So what could be the strategy for traders..
Well in the coming session if the markets manages to trade above 10950 on nifty front with yet again higher lows then expect more rise to 11100 and if it breaches 10890 on curves lower on bollinger band than see a deep correction
Broader markets have not participated in the upmove and the index has always been managed by few large caps and the moment the market breadth slips below 10% expect the large caps to dip which will hurt index, it stands at 12% now
We have already mentioned the global concerns of rising crude , weaker rupee, trade war , korean crisis etc
Now in the coming session we face the following important events
1. iip industrial data
2. cpi inflation data
3. weekly bank nifty expiry
4. jupiter changes
5. eclipse situation
6. crucial week untill 18 july
7. trade war sanctions and chinese retaliations
8. unrealistic and pathless targets and expectations by multiple analysts on various channels , media, social media who only looks at a number of index
So now this above factors will manage the markets in the coming session
We would now place some psychological analysis of traders and investors
1. when markets falls , one believes that it will become zero and when it rises they believe that it will reach sky the next day as golden days have arrived , this is fear and greed which over comes them and they lose thier calmness and position to markets volatility
2. non acceptance - a long trader thinks what he buys must not come down and a short traders cannot accept its position going up, they disrespect stoplosses and remain hopeful untill they lose everything
3. average - the most common trait for losses is averaging , when a trade goes wrong, traders make the worst mistake of averaging by going against the trend
4 . leverage - going beyond ones capacity is always harmful
5. expectations and flexibility - expecting only profits and exact targets usually gets punished , so one needs to be very flexible and not stubborn
6. disrespect - usually traders treat markets as a daily casino and without saying wants to take everything possible
So we are heading for exciting sessions and days ahead for equities
Commodity markets remains weak and we have already informed last week that base metals remains a sell on rise , with bullions and energy a buy on dips
We remain short on same stocks mentioned yesterday
Tata steel , hindalco , vedanta , hind zinc , jsw steel , icici bank ,upl
We hold put options of tata steel 560 pa , jindal steel 210 pa , jsw steel 300 pa , vedanta 210 pa , icici 260 pa , upl 600 pa
We have already taken positions in nifty and bank nifty as per our strategy mentioned
Options jackpot and super duper options
