Wednesday, November 5, 2014

morning thoughts...

As said and illustrated the said reaction came but stocks were uneffected and continued its out performance.
Technically the index will stay in a range and will swing like a pendulum , but stock specific activities will continue and one must concentrate on them rather than index.
Coming to the broader markets majority of the balance 40% stocks are trading way below their all time high levels - with all time highs touched anywhere between 2000 and early 2012.
Only two stocks - Wipro and Zee Entertainment - touched their all time highs around the millennium. Leaving these two aside, rest of the 18 stocks touched their highs in between October 2007 and February 2012. 
As we can see, if an investor had put in money into any of these stocks at their peak levels, and continued holding on to them, they would have still not recovered their investment. And this is at a time when the broader markets are trading at all time high levels, the Nifty is trading higher by a third as compared to the highs it touched in early 2008. 
Moving on to the list of best performing stocks - in terms of returns earned from their highs touched in the bull-run which ended in early 2008 
On the face of it, we would attribute the underperformance of these stocks primarily to a few factors - corporate governance issues, unfavourable headwinds, high debt levels, poor capital allocation skills as well as weak financial performances. 
This just goes on to indicate that while in the short run, stocks may show tremendous run ups for various reasons, for such gains to sustain over the long run, what essentially matters is the quality of the business. Factors such as capital allocation skills, health of balance sheet, strong business models - not to mention the favourable tailwinds as well - all combine and play a role in having desired investing results over longer periods of time. 
While investors may have had the feeling that they would have overpaid for certain stocks at the peak of the market back then, the fact of the matter is that the quality of these businesses essentially did provide them with the results that they would have seen today. 
Coming to the commodity markets bullions will be deceptive and looks weak , natural gas remains strong , base metals and energy remains weak.


Our Convert 15k into 35k option was Jindal steel 170 ca 
Todays Convert 25k into 45k...

Monday's calls sent

Double bumper Karnataka bank 130 ca - buy at cmp 4.10 sl 3 targets 8 - booked profits at 7.05 (also given as free call on facebook and yahoo messenger)
Double bumper Rcom 110 ca - buy at cmp 3.30 sl 2 targets 6 - booked profits at 5.50 (also given as free call on facebook and yahoo messenger)
Jackpot Hdil 90 ca - buy at cmp 2.50 sl 2 targets 6 - booked profits at 5.30 (also given as free call on facebook and yahoo messenger)
Fii Century textiles - buy at cmp 555 sl 542 targets 590 - booked at 587 (also given as free call on facebook and yahoo messenger)
Pfc - buy at cmp 281 sl 279 targets 290 - hit sl
Bharti airtel - sell at cmp 401 sl 404 targets 390 - booked at 395
Gmdc - sell at cmp 157 sl 159 targets 150 - hit sl